ECONOMIC HISTORY OF SATURN-PLUTO IN OPPOSITION

Let’s take a brief trip back to the first half of the 19^th century and see if we notice any parallels to today’s fast-paced world of economic and political globalization. On September 30, 1834, unbeknown to anyone at the time, Saturn moved into an exact opposition aspect to the undiscovered planet Pluto. In America, great progress was being made in paying off the national debt. In fact, by the next year (1835) the national debt accrued during the prior couple of decades was completely paid off. This was the result of a new economic boom brought on by major advances in the field of communications. It was just like the Russian economist Nicholai Kondratieff postulated almost 100 years later when he stated, "During the contraction phase (of the long-term 54-year economic cycle), there are many new important inventions along with the development of techniques and communications that assist the productive process and ultimately lead to rapid expansion."¹ Kondratieff, some readers may recall from a previously article written for TMA, was the originator of what today is known as the "Kondratieff Wave," a cyclical explanation of boom and bust cycles that tend to happen with all free market economies, as observed throughout history. The United States, in 1834-1835, was certainly going through a "productive process" and "rapid expansion" brought about through inventions in the field of communications. Although railroads were introduced in England and America in the 1820’s, it wasn’t until the early 1830’s that railroad building increased dramatically and completely altered the landscape of how we did business, and how we communicated with one another. It led to the demise of the Pony Express. It also led to rampant land speculation, which historically lies at the root of most financial disasters of a large scale.

But in 1834, nobody wanted to hear about doomsday. Everything looked fresh and exciting. It was a New World, and the potential to make money — and lots of it — seemed unlimited. The stock market soared to new all time highs, reaching its peak in May and August 1835. A quick look at an ephemeris will reveal that Saturn transited between 16-18 degrees of the cardinal sign of Libra at the time, while the yet-to-be-discovered Pluto transited 14-15 degrees of the cardinal sign Aries. This was one of those instances where the retrograde of Saturn did not make additional "hits" to the exact opposition point of Pluto. It was a one-passage event, compared to the current aspect, which will form three exact oppositions between August 2001 and May 2002.

For those readers who may not be well versed in the language of astrology, an opposition is a type of aspect (or relationship) between two planets. It occurs when any two planets are in opposite sectors of the zodiac, as seen from Earth. In 1834-1835, Saturn was in Libra and Pluto was in Aries, which are opposite signs to one another in the zodiac. Put more simply, it is a time when one planet is rising in the east, and the other is setting in the west (and vice versa). They appear to be on opposite sides of the Earth. In its interpretation, oppositions are like peak life experiences. It is the halfway point of a planetary pair cycle that begins at the conjunction. Think of it like the halfway point of a lifetime, a period when individuals are supposedly "in the prime of their life." In this analogy, the opposition is like the prime of a cycle’s life. However these periods may also be accompanied by conflicts and polarization. Frequently it will correlate to a crossroads in one’s path. In the case of major transits between slow-moving planets, it can correspond to a crossroads in humanity’s direction. How it is handled can dictate the circumstances to be encountered during the interval of time it takes to the last quarter phase between those same two planets, or their waning square (270Y).

The Saturn-Pluto cycle lasts 32-37 years, depending on the position of Pluto’s erratic orbit around the Sun. Each quarter cycle phase lasts approximately 8-9 years. Quarter cycle phases are important in astrology. They constitute what astrologers call "the hard aspects," or those of the 4^th harmonic. These include the conjunction (0Y), waxing square (90Y), opposition (180Y), and the waning square (270Y). The conjunction begins the cycle. The waxing square begins the most energetic phase of the cycle, the phase of greatest productivity and manifestation. The opposition corresponds to the peak of the cycle, or its greatest conflict. It is the fruition of that which was commenced at the conjunction. The waning square corresponds to the realization that the cycle has served its purpose, and it is time to begin preparation for a new cycle. This can be time of great reward and contentment, or great stress, depending upon how one handled the circumstances surrounding the opposition. In terms of economics and personal finances, one might say that the period surrounding the waning square and thereafter depends upon what one did with all the money earned during the phase of the opposition. Think of the waning square as if it is the beginning of your retirement years. Think of the opposition as the years coinciding with the prime of your life.

Now think of the nature of the planets involved in this cycle. There are probably no two planets that are as revered and feared in astrology as Saturn and Pluto. That does not mean astrologers are unable or unwilling to use the dynamics associated with these two planets in a constructive way. It simply means that of all the planets studied in astrology, these two probably conjure up the most event-oriented challenges. It is rare that when these two planets come into an aspect to one’s chart, that one does NOT experience something tangible strongly impacting the direction of their life cycle. Likewise it is not surprising to observe that when these two planets form a hard aspect to one another in the heavens, humankind as a whole tends to go through a very real and tangible challenge, especially in the arena of politics, finances, and economics. After all, Saturn rules government and politics, and Pluto rules debt, destruction, and collective finances. Psychologically these two planets have correspondence to fear and power, as in the power of fear, or the fear of power. The two together tend to correspond to major shifts in the world financial realm, not to mention danger and threat in the world geopolitical realm.

It is no mystery that when the world suffers great economic stress, international tensions tend to escalate proportionately soon thereafter. And economic stress almost always follows periods of economic greed and excess, especially when everyone does not participate equitably in the distribution and uses of those excesses.

In 1834-1835, as Saturn opposed Pluto, the United States was certainly enjoying excess. But by 1842-1843, as Saturn transited to the waning square with Pluto, the United States was suffering from lack, and mired in a terrible economic depression. As is almost always the case, the excesses were tied to ill-advised loans from banks for purposes of financial speculation. In this instance, it was for land speculation and to some extent, stock market speculation. When the stock market began to fall, and the land development projects failed to materialize, and banks began to fail. A financial panic ensued in 1837, which resulted in a full-fledged depression by the early 1840’s. The stock market tumbled approximately 80% off its highs of 1835, and it wasn’t until 22 years later — in 1857 — that the financial markets began to recover. In short, it was a 22-year economic downturn from the highs of 1835, coinciding with the first and only time the U.S. government was forced to default on its bond (debt) obligations.

One can observe similar themes at other times during and following Saturn in opposition to Pluto. For instance in 1768-1769, as Saturn also opposed Pluto, Great Britain was enjoying immense prosperity provided through taxing their colonies of the New World. The British stock market soared. Of course the colonists did not feel they were sharing equitably in this excess of wealth they helped create. By the time of the waning square in 1776-1777, the American colonists revolted, and thus began the United States of America.

One of the more stunning examples of the negative events associated with Saturn in opposition to Pluto occurred with the three passage series that transpired February-December 1931. This was right in the midst of the Great Depression. From a high of 386.10 in September 1929, just 17 months before the first passage of the Saturn-Pluto opposition, the U.S. stock market (Dow Jones Industrial Averages) plummeted to a low of 40.60 in July 1932. That represented a horrendous loss of nearly 90%. Once again the debacle was caused by excessive speculation in financial markets. Hundreds of banks and thousands of companies went bankrupt, and millions of investors found their savings wiped out. By the time of the waning square between Saturn and Pluto some 9 years later, Europe via Hitler’s activities was starting World War II, perhaps the most atrocious war of all time in terms of wrecking utter havoc and destruction on large groups of people.

The most recent occurrence of Saturn in opposition to Pluto is also noteworthy from both a political and economic viewpoint. This also took place in a three-passage series extending from April 1965 through February 1966. For many Americans born of the Pluto-in-Leo generation, this was the best and worst of times. The country was engaged in another atrocious but questionable war with Viet Nam, but the Pluto in Leo generation was engaged in war its country and parents’ values. The U.S. government sent its first batch of Marine corps into the difficult jungle terrain of Southeast Asia to search for an almost invisible enemy of guerilla combatants. Of course Uranus, the planet representing the urge for independence, was also conjunct Pluto and opposite Saturn, so this was more than just a struggle against authority for America’s youth. It was a cultural revolution. And it wasn’t being fought just in America. It was a clash between generations worldwide. It was race riots, rock and roll, and draft resistance. It was anti-establishment and anti-materialism. It was turn on, tune in, and drop out. It was flower children, peaceniks, and hippies. It was psychedelic and psychic. The parents hated it, and their children loved it — unless their number came up in the draft. That was the basis for massive protests on college campuses throughout the USA.

The U.S. stock market also loved it — at first. Under the first passage of the Saturn-Pluto opposition, the DJIA soared to a new all time high of 944.80 during the second week of May 1965. Within 7 weeks, it plummeted to a new yearly low of 832.70, a loss of nearly 12%. But then it reversed again, posting a new all-time high and reaching above the critical 1000 mark for the first time ever on January 18-19, and again on February 9-10, 1966. It would not see that level again for more than 6 years. In fact, by October 10, 1966, just 8 months after passing the 1000 mark, the DJIA had plunged to 735.70, representing a loss of over 25%.

Once again, just as in 1834-1835, the opposition between Saturn and Pluto coincided with high economic expectations. This was not only the first time the popular DJIA achieved 1000, but it was also the end of the longest economic boom in history for capitalistic nations. It was also the beginning of the huge war-related budget deficits in the United States, which began growing at an exponentially alarming rate over the next two decades. Over the course of the next 9 years, these hopes and expectations would give way to massive disillusionment, both politically and economically. President Nixon would soon resign over the Watergate scandal. The Communists would take over Viet Nam as U.S. military troops were withdraw without a victory over the unseen enemy. Oil shortages would lead to huge price spikes and rationing. Severe inflation would plagued many countries. And all of this would be hard reality by the time Saturn moved into its waning square with Pluto in 1973-1974. It would be the worst economic recession in the world since the Great Depression of the 1930’s.

CURRENT SATURN OPPOSITE PLUTO

Once again humankind is embarking upon another Saturn opposite Pluto period. This current instance will take place three times, starting with the first passage on August 5, 2001, and ending with a third passage on May 28, 2002. Once again the U.S. stock market, as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Averages, is near its all-time high. Once again, the U.S. is sending troops against a faceless enemy in the name of terrorism that resides in the difficult terrain of Southwest Asia. Once again, just as this aspect got underway, U.S. politicians were basking in the glow of having finally balanced the budget and actually undergoing a period of budget surpluses. Is the beginning of another long, drawn out military offense that leads to the loss of countless innocent lives? Is this the end to yet another long period of great prosperity and high expectations? Or will history repeat itself and witness a complete reversal of good fortune, national safety and security, prosperity, and excess over the next 9 years, as Saturn moves towards its waning square to Pluto?

Let’s examine the planets and their signs a little more closely, from an economic and astrological perspective. Pluto is the slower-moving planet, and is transiting through the tropical constellation of Sagittarius. Pluto rules debt. When we think of debt, we think of loans that we are obligated to pay back with interest. One way that governments raise monies to pay for its programs is through taxes, which are also under the domain of Pluto. Another way is through the issuance of government bonds, or treasury bonds and notes. The more bonds and notes a government issues, the greater its debt, or amount of outstanding loans it must pay back with interest. The attractiveness of a bond or note is dependent largely upon the interest rate being offered, plus the safety of the entity (government or corporation) issuing that bond.

In the past decade, the United States has enjoyed immense economic prosperity. So many new businesses were created, and so many new jobs were created during the construction of the "Information Superhighway" of the 1990’s, that the U.S. experienced "full employment" of its workforce, which technically means "low unemployment." All of this prosperity led to huge tax receipts, which in turn led to the budget surpluses by the end of the 1990’s. Interestingly enough, this whole economic revival phenomenon probably started during the Saturn-Pluto conjunction phase of 1982, under President Ronald Reagan’s anti-inflation, tax reduction policies. Readers might also recognize the 1982 conjunction as the start of the greatest bull market ever in U.S. stock indices.

With budget surpluses, the Government no longer needed to borrow so much money in the form of Treasury Bonds. With a growing and healthy economic future, the demand for such Treasury Bonds increased, for they were seen as "safe." The result was lower interest rates. The demand for U.S. paper (bonds and notes) was not just limited to citizens of the United States. Everybody all over the world wanted U.S. Treasury bonds and notes. The U.S. was the "safe haven" for global investors. Consequently the demand for U.S. debt obligations was so great that this country enjoyed an unusual phenomenon over the past 5-6 years: lower interest rates and a stronger dollar vis-à-vis other world currencies. It was the best of all worlds. It was so good, that a new President could come in and confidently promise to lower taxes and actually send money back to its taxpayers.

But now a funny thing has happened. The technology boom has come to a grinding halt. Companies are going out of business. Working people are being laid off in droves. A terrorist attack on the USA has threatened the prospects of a quick economic recovery worldwide. The stock market collapsed to a new multi-year low. And the projected budget surpluses in the USA are not so large anymore. And along with this sudden reversal, the value of the U.S. Dollar, vis-a-vis other currencies, is starting to tumble as we complete the first passage of the Saturn-Pluto opposition in August 2001. In Sagittarius, the presence of Pluto suggests the possibility of a major transformation in the value of world currencies. The possibility of a currency leader other than the U.S. Dollar is very real. And this could have profound implications for world trade, especially given the fact that the new Euro currency is ready to be fully launched within the coming months.

Saturn is the faster moving planet in this notable current aspect. Saturn will thus impose its influence onto the domain of Pluto in Sagittarius. Saturn rules accountability. It offers challenges to the progress of whatever areas are ruled by the planet it aspects, or sign that it transits through. In today’s instance, Saturn is transiting through the tropical sign of Gemini. Gemini rules the arena of commerce and communications.

As stated earlier in this article, one of Nicholai Kondratieff’s major premises of the long-wave economic cycle that he formulated was that "there are many new important inventions along with the development of techniques and communications that assist the productive process and ultimately lead to rapid expansion." We witnessed all of that during our economic technology renaissance of the 1990’s. The computer, email, and the Internet exploded in the last 10 years, and led to the foundation of a whole new world economy. Just like the railroad did in the 1830’s, and the automobile and airplane did in the first years of the 20^th century (Saturn also formed an opposition to Pluto in December 1898), the means by which humankind communicated and conducted business would soon be altered forever through advancements in technology. And following these inventions and their applications into everyday life, a period of great economic prosperity and expansion would follow.

But all economic booms eventually reach periods of a peak, and the momentum of progress recedes. From a purely astrological viewpoint, one could certainly argue that this would be the case as Saturn entered Gemini and formed an opposition to Pluto. The prosperity of the past decade was fueled by wide spread applications of advances in the fields of technology, communications, and telecommunications. More than that, there was the perception that advances in these areas would continue well into the future, leading to a never-ending stream of wealth and prosperity. As a result, speculation in the NASDAQ stocks — which were heavily weighted in these sectors — caused stock values to soar to unbelievable price-to-earnings levels. In fact, many dot com companies never recorded a profit at all! So what could be a more classic case of a slowdown in the field of communications than Saturn in Gemini? What could be a more classic case of bankruptcies, or the inability to pay off loans, than Saturn in opposition to Pluto?

As of this writing, the NASDAQ 100 index has already lost approximately 75% of its value from its all-time high recorded in March 2000, just 17 months before the first Saturn-Pluto opposition in August 2001. That’s the same interval of time between September 1929 (stock market high) and the first passage of Saturn in opposition to Pluto in February 1931. For the NASDAQ, that’s not just a typical bear market, which is commonly defined as a loss of over 20%. That’s a serious wash out. Many stocks, whose prices were trading in triple digits just a year ago, are in trading in single digits now. And many are no longer in existence. With Saturn in opposition to Pluto, that trend of companies going "belly up" in the technology and telecommunications sector is apt to continue. This aspect represents a major transformation of players. And it is not just limited to those areas of communications. Look at what is happening in the automotive industry with Ford Motor and Firestone Tire, which are also under the domain of Gemini, and thus Saturn. Look at what is happening to airline companies, whose stock values plummeted 40% the first trading day after the Terrorist attack in America. With Pluto, it is not just transformation, but also the threat of termination, bankruptcy, and even death. With Saturn, it is accountability for your previous actions. The end result is that things are no longer the same after the aspect, as they were before. Business does not go on "as usual." The world, in general, and politics and economics especially, are not "safe places" anymore.

Yet there might be good news too. For those companies who transform and survive, the Saturn-Pluto opposition might represent the absolute bottom. It is possible to make a case that the NASDAQ, and those companies engaged in technology, communications, and telecommunications that have suffered so much as of late, might stage a healthy recovery after the opposition ends. This would certainly be consistent with the principles of the next major transit that will arise between August 2002-June 2003– Saturn trine Uranus. The question then will become: how long will that rally last?

THE FUTURE IMPLICATIONS FOLLOWING SATURN OPPOSE PLUTO

The period between the opposition and the waning square of Saturn and Pluto is typically a stressful one in terms of world economies and financial markets. It can also be a period of increased international hostilities, or acts of war or terrorism that threaten human lives. As pointed out earlier, there are far more instances of the American economy and stock market topping out during — or close to — the time when Saturn is in opposition to Pluto. Furthermore, the stock market cycles which culminate nearby to the time of Saturn oppose Pluto are not usually just multi-month types; they are more often multi-year types.

The opposition between Saturn and Pluto was found to have the third highest historical correlation to 4-year or greater cycles in U.S. stock indices, using data going back over 200 years. Only the conjunction and opposition of Saturn-Uranus were higher. In 6 of the 7 cases that had occurred previously, an 18-year or greater cycle was found to be present within 8 months of this 32-37 year planetary cycle. In 5 of those cases, it was a crest (top in prices). Obviously there is reason to be concerned as we commence another episode of this planetary signature. But is this instance to correlate with a long-term cycle crest, as appears to be the case with the Dow Jones Industrial Averages? Or will it correlate with a long-term low, which might be the case with the NASDAQ?

It would be easy to argue that both could very well happen. But I think the historical probabilities favor the former. That is, both the overall stock market and the economy have been moving upward since the last recession in late 1990, early 1991. It is true that the momentum of each has slowed down considerably since the technology peak of last year. But by and large, one would have to admit that if a long-term cycle is happening as we start this current instance of Saturn oppose Pluto it is a top, not a bottom. The U.S. budget still projects a surplus. Interest rates are still low. Tax cuts have been passed, and rebate checks are now being sent to U.S. taxpayers as this three-passage series of aspects begins.

But fundamental changes can already be noted underlying all of these long-term cycles. And these changes are consistent with the astrological principles of Saturn and Pluto. Geopolitically, we have witnessed the first massive terrorist attack on American soil on September 11. Economically, the budget surplus is now being projected to be considerably less than originally expected. The 5-6 year bull market in the U.S. Dollar is starting to shows signs of reversing. In the later case, a weaker Dollar may actually provide a temporary boost to the U.S. stock market, for it will make American goods cheaper overseas. This will likely increase demand and hence sales for those American companies which have a substantial foreign presence, which is consistent with the change in global trade suggested by Pluto in Sagittarius. It is one way to help revive the recently sluggish American economy. But if history is any indication, such a revival may not last much beyond the final passage of Saturn oppose Pluto. And that may be due to problems resulting from the first case. If the projected budget surplus actually turns back into a deficit, the need to borrow more monies (issue more government bonds) to pay for government programs will arise. The national debt could reverse course and start accelerating again. The result would be a greater supply of notes and bonds, leading to an increase in interest rates. Or, heaven forbid, the need to reverse course and actually raise taxes again. Instead of low interest rates, prosperity, and excesses enjoyed during the past decade, we could find just the opposite conditions present at the end of this decade: high interest rates, lack of prosperity, and disillusionment. And this would occur simultaneously with Saturn entering into a waning square with Pluto, and part of a large T-square formation with Uranus, and all entering cardinal signs between 2009-2012. It would also occur simultaneously with many baby boomers reaching retirement age, when instead of adding money to the general economy through consumer purchases and tax payments, they will be trying to withdraw it. It is not a pretty picture, but one which could transpire nonetheless based on the history of the Saturn-Pluto cycle, as it moves from an economic and market peak around its opposition, to a bottom around its waning square.

WHAT CAN ONE DO?

First of all, one must understand that these are only possibilities, not inevitabilities, based on the author’s understanding of cycles — both planetary cycles and their correlation to cycles in human activity. And even if these aforementioned projections are correct, it is also very likely that any downturn will not be straight down. It will not be without periods of hope and recovery along the way. In other words, the author does not see an exact repeat of the Great Depression.

There is even a possibility that things might turn out quite different, and much more positive, this time. For one thing, let’s consider that U.S. President George W. Bush, Jr. was elected under the 20-year Jupiter-Saturn conjunction in 2000. The past three presidents elected under this powerful conjunction were all extremely popular: Ronald Reagan, John F. Kennedy, and Franklin D. Roosevelt. Presidents elected under this signature have had a tendency to "rescue" the American public from a long period of fear and despair, and in the process, carved a niche for themselves as a great leader. George W. certainly has that opportunity right now, with his war against terrorism. If he succeeds, and also keeps his promise not to take money from the surplus of social security, he could very well earn infinite credit as a great world leader, much like Reagan, Kennedy, and Roosevelt. But if he fails, he might very well end up amongst the ranks of Lyndon Johnson and Herbert Hoover, presidents under the past two instances of Saturn in opposition to Pluto. The destiny of George W. Bush, Jr. is being chiseled right now, at the end of 2001. If he succeeds, then the economy and stock market are likely to rebound strongly, with a bottom in place no later than the first quarter of 2002. If he fails, then the economy and stock market will likely continue falling right into the mid-term elections in the autumn of 2002, as Republicans suffer a stunning loss of seats in Congress, and bush’s popularity falls with it. With Saturn oppose Pluto, the carnage could continue at least 7-8 months past the last passage (May 2002), just as it has in the past. But with Jupiter conjunct Saturn still in the first quarter phase following the conjunction in 2000, there is also the possibility of a positive resolution. Only time will tell which of these two major geocosmic signatures is more powerful. And that will ultimately determine where George Bush, Jr. falls in terms of being one of the great, or mediocre, presidents in the history of the United States. Perhaps his excellent choice of advisors and cabinet members regarding national security will help him land in the former category.

Economically, there are many things we have to consider as individuals. If the dollar is to reverse direction and become weaker over the next few years, then it is sensible to consider converting some of one’s savings into foreign currency. How much to convert should be the subject of discussion with a professional financial planner, as it depends upon many financial factors (age, income, savings, risk tolerance, taxes, etc.). As the dollar changes directions, so may various commodities and financial instruments that are valued in dollars, like Gold and Silver. Both precious metals have been in bear markets for approximately 20 years now. A weaker dollar may in turn inflate Gold and Silver prices. Besides, Gold has exhibited a fairly consistent 8.5-year cycle (low to low), which comes up again within 17 months of September 2001. Astrologically, Jupiter is now in the sign of Cancer, which rules Silver. Next year it will transit through Leo, which rules Gold. Both the phasing of the long-term market cycles, and the astrological position of Jupiter support the argument for higher precious metals’ prices.